The Reserve Bank (RBNZ) sets one lever — the Official Cash Rate, now 2.25% — to keep inflation near the 2% midpoint of its 1–3% band without choking a fragile recovery. New Governor Anna Breman is holding, judging a fresh oil-shock inflation spike temporary. Drive the levers below; every dotted number is a handle.
Drag the OCR. Anchored to the real current readings (OCR 2.25%, inflation 3.1%, unemployment 5.3%). Higher cools inflation toward 2% but lifts unemployment — the two-sided risk Breman keeps naming. Directional model, not a forecast.
After ~325bps of cuts from a 5.5% peak, the easing paused at 2.25% and held. Drag the marker through the meetings.
One oil shock between February and April reshaped the outlook. Flip the view.
A cost shock spikes prices once (look through it) — unless it feeds wages & expectations (a spiral to prevent). Drag the pass-through.
Conway's point: it's not just how fast prices rise, but incomes vs prices. Prices are ~26% up since 2020 — drag income growth.
The RBNZ shocks the banks on purpose: unemployment to 10.5%, GDP −6.5%, house prices −35%. Drag the severity — do banks stay above their minimum capital?
Built from auto-transcripts of the cited videos for side-by-side comparison. Hard figures (OCR, CPI, GDP, the FSR scenario) are the RBNZ's own; the OCR→inflation/unemployment relationship and the forecast tails back to 2% are directional illustrations of what officials described, not forecasts. Governor’s name is Anna Breman (mis-transcribed in places). Not financial advice.